Blake Hall
The mess in Syria is tangled and as complicated as ever, and it seems only to be getting more so with each strenuous day.
On the good side of the ledger, Russia is now considering joining the United States-led coalition (which includes France, Great Britain, etc.) to combat ISIS in the region which, could mean a number of things: for one, it could lead to the end of Assad’s reign, since Russia has more to do with him remaining in “power” than anyone or anything. Two? It could mean France and Russia finally squashing a beef that started with Putin and company invading Crimea in 2014.
Also, with Russia theoretically on the same page with the U.S. and other leading European nations, it could massage strained relations between Turkey and Russia and inspire a resolution, despite the fact that Turkey’s president called Putin the other day to talk, only to get his voicemail (assuming Putin has VM — according to numerous sources, he didn’t pick up the call and vows not to, until Turkey is ready to apologize).
On the bad side of the ledger, we’re talking about Russia here, hardly a trustworthy superpower with a steady, dependable leader in Vladimir, especially when it comes to diplomacy.
Case-in-point is the footage below. As you’ll see Russia is still stacking the deck against Turkey, living up to their word and hauling in their heavy duty S-400 defense missile system (surface-to-air or SAM), which can incinerate military aircraft flying overhead like a bug zapper once did in your family’s backyard.
They’re also referred to as “Triumph” (or “Triumf”) missiles, which is a word not lost on any country’s military who may or may not be feeding the crude, bubbling cauldron that is the Middle East these days.
Russia also has a bunch of potentially debilitating blows it could lay on Turkey aside from brute force. They could hit them where they could, potentially, hurt the most: their pockets. And their citizens’ thermostat.
This from Foxtrot Alpha:
Russia is also seeking to punish Turkey economically, halting a slew of joint Russian-Turkish business deals and building projects. Russia has also told its citizens not to travel to Turkey for pleasure and it has been announced that the visa-free travel agreement between the two countries will be suspended on January first. The Russian military industrial complex has been ordered not to buy materials from Turkey, and reports are circulating that Turkish businessmen attending trade shows in Moscow have been detained, an act President Erdogan equates to “playing with fire.”
Although these moves are substantial and economically troubling, the most feared Russian response, aside from direct military engagement, would be for Russia to turn off its energy exports to Turkey. These make up over half the country’s natural gas needs and 30 percent of its oil. As such, Russia could make Turkey’s citizens suffer a very cold winter if they so choose.
So far there has been no indication that Russia will cut off energy supplies to Turkey over the shoot-down, but if things escalate, or another incident occurs, it may be Moscow’s biggest card to play when it comes to retribution against Turkey.
One more thing regarding Syria: Germany has just joined the fight, too (kind of).